What We are After
Sep 18th, 2009 by pedestrian
You know when you are running and running and running, every once in a while you need to stop and rest for a minute, especially if you have been out of shape for a long time?
You stop, you catch your breath, and each time you begin running again.
Commentators of all kinds are continuosly asking “what the protesters hope to achieve” by participating in these demonstrations, rallies and religious functions.
I think for the most part, these rallies are all breathing corners, gatherings in which we can all stop, catch our breath, and take a look back at the population that has been running with us, a population we could not see while running in the confines and restrictions of our own homes.
We may hear about them online, or from friends, we may hear that the movement has not died and is as alive as ever, but we don’t know that. There’s no way to verify. To feel the pulse of the city. These demonstrations are verification meetings of sorts, where we come face to face with the thousands of nameless, faceless people just like us, who have kept this spirit alive. The “faces” of this movement, Mousavi, Khatami, etc can not do anything for us except help us keep it alive and running. They have the medium to be heard, while we are all restricted indoors.
Others are unhappy that the “movement” has not “achieved” anything so far.
This isn’t a movement that should achieve big changes in a small amount of time. The fact that we were out there today, the fact that we are STILL out there, is the biggest achievement of all. The fact that the establishment had to install Ahmadinejad and Khatami, two of the most despised faces in Iran, that they had to shut down offices and give us a four day vacation to keep us away is a HUGE achievement on its own. This is not another chaotic movement which aims to achieve big political gains, in a short time.
What we plan to do? this is not a revolution, this is not abrupt, sudden change, this is a long, long waiting game, and achieving a waiting population is a tremendous achievement on its own. To keep people coming, and planning and hopeful will be the most difficult task of all.
So far, so good.
So beautifull and so true what you have written. You are actually creating an active and aware civil society in Iran, this “thing” that all free societies need in order to determin their own fate and to step up, organize and express their opinion. This is the ONLY way you can achieve a healthy and sustainable transformation of a society. This won’t work with a revolution. What Iran needs is an evolution to a higher and better state. And the virtue for that is perseverance.
You can be proud of yourself that you are still out there. i am so proud of you..
Rosario,
Thanks so much for your note. This is gong to be a long, long process indeed that began years before the recent election and we all need to be involved … I have my fingers crossed!
I see it all exactly the same way – and clapclap for today – a victory for the human spirit!!
parvati, I was so excited, humbled, happy, worried … I don’t have too much news of the arrests or protester abuse yet. so I’m still all those things.
If you can read Persian, my friend here has a very different account:
http://miracle30363.persianblog.ir/
she writes that the greens were dispersed, unorganized, and once they got their act together, the militias attacked with tear gas and batons.
The demonstrations had 7 different routes, so I guess we’ll have to wait and see what each one was like.
Ped, who said the turn out of greens was not high?!??!?!
The pictures speak for themselves that he turnout was HIGH, LOUD and BRAVE!
And my brother was there; so I do need “reporters” to tell me!
What are you talking about “there is no way to verify”; have you not looked at any videos?!?!??!?!?!?!
Naj, I spoke to a number of people today. Some told me there was a humongous green turnout, 2 told me there wasn’t. But they were in a different route. I was just asking.
Naj, I’m talking about something very different, it’s not about today! Everytime there’s a demonstration, new life seems to be injected into everyone … me included, and especially my friends I speak to in Iran. Because the rest of the time, people grow restless … the rest of the time, there’s no way to verify if everyone else is still as enthusiastic as they once were. I wasn’t talking about today at all.
There’s no way to verify.
So you really think that in countries with FREE press and media you can “verify” everything just by turning on the TV???!?!!
Sorry ped; I think I got you wrong! But that is because of teh comment you left on my blog! Were I said “where are the aerial pictures” I was asking that of state-sponsored media; who had all the freedom to brag about THEIR successful quds! As Some of those pictures I have shown indicate, all fars news has been doing is photographical stylization! Au contrare, the green pictures (which you would have seen if you had scrolled down) were aerial, from bridges and snapshot from videos! So my reaction here was to your comment on my blog!
But the PROOF to me that life is injected is that people who were reluctant to speak on the phone, who were in the “quiet” cities, were eager today to ask us if this and that slogan was really chanted!
the PROOF to me is that people on the facebook have started using theor full names and pictures again.
the PROOF is the nervous faces of the armageddonists; holding Hizbollah or IRGC flags, timidly as masses of greens passed by them singing death to dictator!
the PROOF is in pictures of Karoubi, Khatami and Mousavi present; pictures of assaults on them present … and PROOF is in preparation that went into this and the celebratory mood of the nation; anticipation of Eyd Fetr!
Today, will take us a LONG way; as I said earlier, today HISTORY was marked!
O.k. … this is weird Naj, b/c that is exactly the stuff I meant. And I know what you meant by aerial pictures, and that’s why I said “LOL!” b/c it’s so true.
and in a FREE(er) country, people can talk on the phone with less fear, they have other ways (besides the TV) to get a feeling from one another. But these demonstrations do that exactly: they inject new life into everyone, they are kind of like catching up ceremonies where we can meet and be certain that no one else has forgotten either and that we’re not alone in this. There are dozens of ways for us to know this – as you mention – even without rallies, but the rallies are foolproof, we have everyone in front of us, so we can be absolutely certain.
“Commentators of all kinds are continuosly asking “what the protesters hope to achieve” by participating in these demonstrations, rallies and religious functions.”
I read a bit of that debate on Enduring America this morning and it’s a legitimate question to ask. Outside of lots of flowery, hopeful prose, though, no one can say with any confidence what the end-goal is because: 1) Who’s in charge? 2) Of those claiming some type of leadership role, just exactly who are they in charge of?
The Ahmadi posse probably thinks of it as a long waiting game as well. All they have to do is wait for people to tire themselves out and either leave or stay in silent acquiescence and we win. Ironically enough, that’s been the Likudnik strategy in Israel in relation to the Palestinians as well: make life as difficult as possible for the Palestinians inside and outside Israel, keep stealing their remaining land piece by piece, stall the peace process, and hope that the world community, what’s left of the Palestinian middle classes, and Arab neighbors get so fed up that they finally throw up their arms and give in to the situation.
This is where a leadership core which is no longer under the delusion that this “system” can be saved would be helpful to this movement. The hope that continued but largely controlled unrest will provide time for consensus-building among the high priests in Qom to come out against Khamenei and Ahmadinejad in unison is likely a pipe dream (I mean, if we’re talking about a strategy in all this, isn’t that it? That the protests will allow Rafsanjani to work his “magic” with the clerical elite?). Priests don’t know how to make major decisions affecting the administration of the country. Look at the mess they’ve made of the country over the past thirty years! And, as I’ve said before, most folks aren’t listening anyway. The arrests of the marja children are likely the work of the elder statesmen of the Intelligence-Military-SL junta who still live in a world where the statements of a marja are life and death matters.
There is no doubt a momentary high that opposition members can gain from such public gatherings. But like any high, there will be an accompanying crash when they see on Sunday that they’re no closer to their “goals,” however each one of the rally participants sees them for themselves, than they were last week. Without effective leadership, this movement could die through violence and attrition or have some portion of it become radicalized and militarized (if it hasn’t already happened; see, for example, the assassinations in Kordestan)—again, not unlike the Palestinian situation.
supp, this is a waiting game for both sides, and thus the importance of waiting …
That’s why the flowery, rosy statements are actually useful so long as they are read and reread- whatever keeps people waiting, is a weapon.
These are of course legitimate questions to ask, I wasn’t implying that they weren’t. I meant that because there have not been ACTUAL political gains, doesn’t make the movement any less successful (or not). Opportunities will present themselves, maybe in the next two years, maybe the next five. The question is whether anyone will be waiting there to use them.
I don’t see any powerful strategists on the Mousavi/Khatami camp, I could be wrong, but whoever they have is either locked up or silent (the likes of Abdi have been missing for quite some time). So with the absence of influential strategists, waiting for an opportunity seems to be the only way to take this along. Opportunities that even the non-strategist can see and exploit. I don’t claim to have an answer, but “a leadership core which is no longer under the delusion that this “system” can be saved would be helpful to this movement” sounds like anther Khomeini to me. And that too doesn’t sound any better.
I think the clerics still have a chance to save themselves, the future of their state depends on it, and that may ultimately determine how things can go. My friends (and I realize I”m only speaking on a very small subset of the Iranian population here) are fired up by a Sanei speech, or by a rally such as this or by Karoubi. This is still very new, and they are still willing to wait … for how long though, is the biggest question.
Here is my point by point rebuttal. Please take it in the spirit of friendly debate as it was intended:
“supp, this is a waiting game for both sides, and thus the importance of waiting …That’s why the flowery, rosy statements are actually useful so long as they are read and reread- whatever keeps people waiting, is a weapon.”
Fine, but to what end? Perhaps not you, but many people out there are seemingly desperate to draw analogies between these events and the Islamic Revolution. Certainly, you can use history to help understand the present (and future), but history is no more cyclical than it is linear. Taking to heart that line of thinking, the bare-bones strategy seems to be that folks should wait it out and take advantage of the opportunities given them to gather in the streets and voice their displeasure. But what if the junta doesn’t act in the same way that the Pahlavi government did? Just as hard as it has been and will be for the “coup” leaders to effectively stop life in Iran during the past three months to avoid political embarrassment or threats in the form of public protests, it is equally hard for people to put their lives on hold (or worse, on the line) without having any idea of what the “end-game” is or could be? Can we legitimately find a way out of this impasse or are we just floating along hoping for a miracle?
“Opportunities will present themselves, maybe in the next two years, maybe the next five. The question if anyone will be waiting there to use them.”
Opportunities to do what, though? Gather in the streets? As we have seen, every time out, the crowds are getting smaller and smaller. Not necessarily because the Green “movement” is losing support or the sitting government is winning people over but because (in my belief) there is no direction to this movement and disillusionment is creeping in. If five years down the line, there isn’t some sort of solid political organization and platform at work both inside and outside the country, this movement is effectively dead. We can’t expect for people to remain in limbo that long without bad things happening: i.e. either the banalization of mass outrage or the increasing radicalization of it. Without political gains, and without goals to explain the gains made, the movement can very quickly lose focus and control.
“I don’t claim to have an answer, but “a leadership core which is no longer under the delusion that this “system” can be saved would be helpful to this movement” sounds like anther Khomeini to me. And that too doesn’t sound any better.”
My argument would be that it was to some degree the lack of a coherent political strategy on the part of the opposition taking into account the desires of the majority that led to Khomeini. And if something like a revolution develops out of this crisis, that may well be our national fate again. This time, though, maybe a rebellious army colonel plays the role of contender to the “throne.”
“I think the clerics still have a chance to save themselves, the future of their state depends on it, and that may ultimately determine how things can go. My friends (and I realize I”m only speaking on a very small subset of the Iranian population here) are fired up by a Sanei speech, or by a rally such as this or by Karoubi. This is still very new, and they are still willing to wait … for how long though, is the biggest question.”
This is where we disagree. I think the clergy is done in Iran. You and your friends would be excited at this point if anyone thought to be part of the clerical or political establishment came out in support of the protesters. But that doesn’t necessarily mean you’d give any of them the time of day if this movement was successful in ridding Iran of Ahmadinejad and velayat-e faqih. And I would imagine that those are increasingly becoming minimum goals for the people involved in the protests at this point. The power of the clergy is limited and dispersed, and so largely irrelevant for both the protesters and many members of the junta.
supp, my mind doesn’t work in a chronological order, it’s messed up with a flu,
so here it goes:
If you were making these arguments two years from now, I would more whole heatedly accept them. But it’s only been three months, the wounds are all very, very new and the dust of confusion is only slowly beginning to settle.
Beheshti only briefly spoke of the “network” they are working to establish, that has yet to come out, possibly because of the wave of new arrests that have taken place in the last 48 hours. So it could go a couple of ways.
Either in a few months time, this wave of terror (arrests, abuse, etc) will calm. We will go back to the slightly lesser version we’ve always had in the past thirty years. In that case, dast o pa shikasteh, they can pursue a plan, if they have one. They’ve made it clear that this plan won’t be a political entity, its aims are not going to include running for office, b/c it’s going to be based on the belief that “the office” is being ruled by an impenetrable, illegitimate force. So what do they plan to do exactly?
On the other hand, it might not stop, it might get worse even … then, I will most likely throw my hands up in the air.
Something like another revolution may indeed brew up sooner or later, that may indeed by our “fate”, but that doesn’t mean we won’t at least try for something different. And I disagree. I don’t think religion is done in Iran, even though I may wish that to be the case. I think a large group of Iranians are far too religious, in their own quirky ways, not the fundamental sense. I think religious reform in Iran is necessary, and will come about ultimately, and that’s one (of the many keys) to the problem.
“But that doesn’t necessarily mean you’d give any of them the time of day if this movement was successful in ridding Iran of Ahmadinejad and velayat-e faqih.” … I think at least some of us would.
One thing that I still can’t make my way around is the stats. How much popular support does Ahmadi & Co REALLY have among Iranians? That’s one group. Another reality that analysts like Abdi have touched on, is the absolute destitution, addiction, poverty, etc that plagues one large sector of Iranian society. Abdi has gone far enough to write that “Iran is moving towards disintegration” (it was an old article in Shargh newspaper) because of this widespread ruin … How will each of these groups affect the future?
Fair enough, I just think that whoever it is who’s hoping to represent the will of the protesters better come up with a plan for dealing with the illegitimacy of the ruling government besides public protest. And the sooner, the better. I may be rash in my assessment but I feel like momentum is slipping.
I never said that religion is dead in Iran, just that clerical and political Islam by and large is. That’s an important distinction. I think it’s significant that one of the “leaders” of the opposition is a “shaykh.” A vast majority of Iranians have been unreformed Sufis whether they’ve recognized or not. A clerical Shiite Islam has only succeeded when it coopted popular Sufi beliefs and practices. One of the reasons that Khomeini had a strong popular base was because of his mystical leanings. He was one of the few ayatollahs in Qom who would teach erfan (the clerical code word for Sufi thought). Heck, he even wrote ghazalha-ye arefaneh.
I may be your only Texas neo-con visitor,and am certainly the least informed about Iran,but I see the Green movement as THE most important political development in the world today , not just for Iran,and the ME,but for the future of Islam.It may surprise you to hear that I really don’t like war,and bloodshed, and so, have pinned my hopes on a peaceful Reformist redemption of the IRI .I don’t think this movement can be stopped,but I do worry that you may not have ‘5,or ten years ‘ to pull it off.If Bozo & Co. strap a nuke onto a rocket (2015 ?) then all Hell may break loose.
And dear Pedestrian, I accept that my Reformist Green
“Bush/Cheney ‘04″ T-shirt may not be appropriate for the Victory party : How about Green Malcolm X ? He’s our ONLY American Moslem hero, and as badass a revolutionary as we’ve produced in a long time. Hope to see you there.
Dear Pedestrian,
viewed on the basis of the short span of life-experience at my disposal so far, your assessment of what is happening in Iran, i.e. of what can realistically be achieved now, what might realistically be achieved over the long-term, I tend to agree with youwholeheartedly, who and especially because you are free of any ideological prisons of any “-ism” , and, with a view to your your age, I admire you (in particular comparing myself with you when I was that young, and when I was naively following and running behind the “-isms” current and ‘modern’ at that time (commun-ism, marx-ism, lenin- ism, mao-ism).
In addition, of course, I – personally and jobwise – had to carry the hard consequences of my political commitment! –
On the other hand, of course, I as a non-Iranian, am not really capable and do not have the right and knowledge to express a(n) (well-founded) opinion on Iran. –
THAT’S WHY I very much enjoy the informative, extremely relevant and highly clarifying discussions between you, your admittedly highly intelligent, well-informed, sage and wise co-blog-friends and your commentators and contributors of the same calibre.
To cut a long matter short:
The blogs created by you and your co-blog-friend naj are just great! You two are really an incredibly highly efficient “combat troop” – if not THE most efficient one: a concentration of insight, knowledge, humanity, arts, strategic and tactic thinking and practice, patience, friendliness – against the odds in Iran – and will someday – I hope it won’t take too many years – be somehow “victorious”.
German
German, thank you so much for your kind words. I really don’t think I deserve them, but thank you!
BTL, “I see the Green movement as THE most important political development in the world today , not just for Iran,and the ME,but for the future of Islam” … Finally something we agree on! However, being Iranian, I could be “a little” biased! A green Malcolm X t-shirt would be just fine.
And as monstrous as they may be to their own population, these thugs are quite prudent in other ways, they are beats, they’re not stupid. I don’t think the nuclear issue is really an issue, and I certainly don’t believe they will “strap a nuke onto a rocket by 2015″ or any other date.
supp, I’ve read his poetry – it’s not very good! :-/ but I know that’s irrelevant to your point, Khomeini’s mystique had a lot to do with his wide appeal. That is a very important distinction, and I meant that I don’t think we’ve seen the last of political Islam. This Islam in “political Islam” may take very different forms in the future, but I don’t see it going away completely anytime soon.
Yes, sooner than later, they are going to have to come up with a plan. I just don’t think that because they haven’t presented us with one yet, it means they “haven’t done anything”.
Re “I see the Green movement as THE most important political development in the world today , not just for Iran,and the ME,but for the future of Islam”.
Not “only” for Islam IMHO – have we forgotten Khatami’s stupendous Dialogue of Civilisations” initiative?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dialogue_Among_Civilizations
…which Zapatero + Erdogan subsequently followed-up to promote an “Alliance of Civilisations”? … just when the calls for Crusade-vs-Jihad/Jihad-vs-Crusade were at their most strident!
Plus with the Iranian reformists’ strong philosophical bent and orientation towards mutual-respect, dialogue, tolerance and humanitarian values, a fully “reformist” Iran would – indeed sooner-or-later WILL – be a boon to the entire planet !
Iranians – if/when free not muzzled! – are so very gifted in the arts, poetry, literature, philosophy, history: we all (i.e. Europeans-and-not-only..) really-really NEED you, you’re our ideal “ally” in a shared last-ditch struggle to save/stimulate/revivify cultural and intellectual life IN GENERAL against the twin onslaughts of brutes-and-fanatics on the one side, McWorldists on the other …
Correction to my previous post: should read: “to save/stimulate/revivify cultural intellectual and spiritual life…”
BTL forgets another Muslim American hero, Muhammad Ali, and now that he’s discovered his Irish roots he is ‘green’ too!
http://www.independent.ie/national-news/ali-to-find-his-irish-roots-1850958.html
Supp; Ped
Just interjecting my two penny worth of comment on your fascinating exchange.
Supp; you ask about “Opportunities will present themselves, maybe in the next two years, maybe the next five. The question if anyone will be waiting there to use them.”
Opportunities to do what, though? Gather in the streets?
With the exception of Ayatollah Montazeri; no other clergy in this movement has the full legitimacy to save himself and the movement. For now, people are utilizing the clergy (like Sane’i and Mousavi Ardabili) to fend off the “other’s” “shari’at”madaries! But all are full aware that this is temporary! There might be a resurgence of religion in Iran, but not religious government. We will long live to thank Ahmadinejad for pulling the rug from under the feet of the clergy!
But this is where these “protests” become important because they force the “nezaam” to self-destroy! Even if these protests stop and people go back to what you called radicalism or banality, the foundations will shake even further. This is grass-root movement in its very biological analogy. The pot’s broken and the bonsai ’s loose!
The danger, however, is that these roots are growing under the walls on which the roof of the nation rests. My worry is that this trembling foundation will crumble disastrously–especially since Iran is surrounded by several pack of enemies. And perhaps, this will be out greatest exercise in learning to COMPROMISE?
From what I am tracing in the currents, it seems everyone is in an assessment mode! Both the greens AND the black/reds. I think the LEAST achievement will be to TEACH the ruling elite and teh opposition leaders, that people are flexible to “forgiving” them if they change; and flexible to hate them as well, should they not keep their end of the bargain! Won’t this be our bigger democratic exercise?
Naj, you nailed it, especially with the last paragraph.
But it seems to me that (maybe) we are getting the opposite of what we got in 79: there came a time when the Shah was willing to compromise, but it was too little, too late. Or at least the pro-revolutionary forces wanted it that way.
Now the protesters are ready and willing to work for a compromise (again, only from what I understand), but listening to K.’s speech today, or AN’s yesterday, it doesn’t seem to me that they are.
Of course, one thing is what they say, another is what they do … but I am waiting to see where the wave of new arrests in the past 48 hours will go. Will they calm down a bit? Or is this what we’re gong to have to get used to?
The assassinations in Kurdistan scare the shit out of me. What if parts of this movement become radicalized (I’m not saying the assassinations had anything to do with the movement, at least we don’t know anything yet)? Or what if the terror doesn’t stop?
And mind you, by “radicalized” I mean two things: turned violently outward, or suppressed inward. I’ve seen my friends fall into a desperate, hopeless mood towards their environment. It seems as dangerous to me as them taking up arms.
Or, even more dangerous, as they’d be terrible gunmen
Re Kurdestan, I never know who is killing whom, really! So who are these killed ones?! Who may have killed them?
Forgot to say this: if Khamenei et al were to show reason and flexibility, we would not be here now! So they are done!
But there are plenty of rats who are still on their ship! Thy should be given incentive to jump! Also, our flexibility will keep those on our side in check! As long as they are aware that they are not carved in stone; and are not considered as flawless saints; we should be safe
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vb7ztHcOZH8&feature=player_embedded
speaking of violence
“haven’t done anything” ?
Green has brought fear to the heart of your adversary,and they are AFRAID.The IRI has now used all the usual tools of oppression,and they’ve failed for the first time in 30 years.”Guts” is one of the Big Three Gs.,congratulations!
Naj comes closest to my understanding with “forgiving”.I’d love to give Supp a democratic republic, but I’d rather kiss the Imam’s ass than have the nessasary civil war to get there.Something like the spirit of a Truth,and Reconciliation Commission within the IRI seems like the only peaceful path toward freedom.
BTL, The truth and reconciliation commission doesn’t even have to PHYSICALLY happen – we will be content so far as we see them negotiating between themselves under the table …
Your words sound refreshingly very unbushian.
dear pedestrian,
I’m sure now that you’re much too forgiving to ban me for weird spelling,and so as long as the subject of Israel never comes up,
I can continue to visit here.
weird spelling is no reason to ban anyone especially when you are guilty of it yourself … And you are welcome here anytime. But the subject of Palestine/Israel will most likely come up sooner or later. Especially with Bibi Monster’s frequent drums of war and Ahmadi’s holocaust hobby.