What Now?
Nov 5th, 2009 by pedestrian
According to just about every reliable report I read of 13 Aban, there was more security in the streets than there had ever been in any of the post-election demonstrations. The main grounds of the rally were sealed off completely to everybody except for pro-government factions. Outside these grounds, security forces made sure that large groups of protesters were not able to gather.
The violence/confrontation was also unprecedented, where many reports indicate that anyone who was passing by in certain areas (Haft-e Tir, Taleqani, etc) whether wearing green or not, whether shouting loudly or not was brutally beaten (I certainly hope it ends there. We did not hear about the deaths for weeks after June 15th. Although I did not read too many reports of gun shots.)
The number of arrests too seem to have grown exponentially compared to previous demonstrations. Mowjcamp writes about the unknown whereabouts of a large group of girls who were arrested. RadioZamaneh reports that families of detainees clashed with the police.
This is a photo of Habibolah Peyman, 65 year old member of the Freedom Movement of Iran who was attacked yesterday:
He spoke to the BBC after this incident, and gave vivid accounts of the violence he saw (one of the friends he was with was unconscious for some time after he was hit in the head.)
Taken all of this into consideration, it just seems to me that street protests aren’t viable meeting grounds anymore – but they are what has kept the movement alive.
I’m not sure if I were Mousavi, I would release another statement days before the next gathering (16 Azar). Mousavi never directly asked them to attend, and plans were already underway, but his statement was enough to further mobilize everybody.
So what do we do now?
Despite the voracious advertisements for Twitter and facebook’s role in “helping the Iranians” and article after article with titles like “this revolution will be won on the internet” – IMHO, if this revolution is fought on the internet, it will be lost on the streets of Tehran.
First there is the question of access – a large majority of Iranians still haven no access whatsoever. And for those who do, dial-up connections are simply too slow and frustrating to create a significant battleground on the internet. ADSL is still very new, expensive and not widely available.
All of that aside, there is the question of how that online activism will translate out on the streets and as we saw yesterday, there are too many additional variables that we simply can not control.
You could however, argue how the students are utilizing the internet. They have easier access to the medium than any other group in Iran – through their schools, although that too is limited in many ways. But they have access and they have community – and thus have a better opportunity to transfer activity from one mode to the other.
Satellite television remains the only other alternative. That is why opposition groups in Iran (and specifically Karoubi for years) have been trying to launch their own channel.
But that has yet to go anywhere.
Mousavi keeps referring to “social networks” and “communities”. The trick with that is that it makes individuals much more vulnerable. If people were to begin organizing events in their own community, they would be giving away their privacy: their address and their name could be identified. Any antagonist in the neighborhood could easily blow up their efforts. Before the revolution, people met in mosques. Each neighborhood has a mosque. Now, at least from rumors we hear, people might have even been held up in mosques. Whether these rumors are true or not, mosques are no longer an alternative (and amen to that!).
Be it in schools, in neighborhoods, at work – it seems to me as if smaller group activity may be a better alternative from now on.
I have no idea what I’m talking about or where to begin in case you’re wondering …
Thanks for this piece… The regime is confronted with a lose-lose situation. If they a) allow street protests people will be encouraged to continue their rallies. If the regime b) confronts people harshly – like they did yesterday – people will be enraged and therefore motivated to protest more decisively. And we all know that the Iranian calendar provides dates on a monthly basis to pour into the streets and protest. Our shi’ite version of Islam is also driven by a culture of protest. This cannot be stopped and the regime seems to be fully aware of that.
What now? If the Leader gives in and paves the way for an end of Ahmadinejad’s administration, people might calm down a bit. But even in that case, only for a short time because now we all see, people want Khamenei to go. Since the Leader doesn’t appear to give in, clashes will continue – but at the same time an end to this nightmare will come sooner. The only thing worrying me is the death toll which will be entailed in the escalation of this struggle.
May God protect the brave people of our country.
Ramin, I’m not so sure I agree with “b” (people will be enraged and therefore motivated to protest more decisively) – if they use enough violence, they can actually succeed in suppressing the people’s will to protest. I mean, I just think there is a danger of taking our will too seriously – it is easier to break than we can imagine.
ped, it is not a rumour that people are held up in mosques. I saw it with my own eyes on haft-e tir on june 23.
seda, I was talking about yesterday – are you sure it was done yesterday?
And about june 23rd – what is it like? So they throw people in there and shut the door?
Nothing is as strong as the “genius saeculi”, the “Zeitgeist”, “the spirit of the times”, the mainstream trend !
That is why I am not that dejected when thinking of the future of Iran, out of reasons of simple arithmetics and the mechanisms of its workings:
a) Even if accepting the official results, the opposition candidates combined acquired about 36 % of the votes
b) These (assumed) voters are not any voters whatever, but seem – as shown by post-election events – to be highly motivated, highly dedicated to a particular goal, turning out to be, so to speak, a real movement for more democracy
c) “The horse they are placing their bet on”, i.e. more democracy, has been for some considerable time and is still at the present a fundamental, global basic trend, irreversible in its general direction. A trend, no ordinary person will be able to evade, a drift like a time-capsule without a door really giving you the chance to get out of that gigantic vehicle.
[It seems always like this with these global movements – the ordinary bloke on the street cannot only evade this trend, however much he tries to be independent of it, (s)he strongly supports it and actively helps to succeed it.
In the thirties/forties into the fifties it was the system of a “leader” plus his party , propagated as a savior from everything evil ever having happened or going to happen, turning out to be blood-stained tyrants or humane dictators: Mussolini + his fascist party, Franco, Hitler plus his Nazi-party, Salazar, Stalin plus his communist party, Peron + his peronistas]
d) [In Germany e.g. the movement of the ecologically minded environmentalists disposed only of 5 % (!) voters backing it. Thus the election-results of the environmentalist, the German “Green Party” the first time they were elected into parliament. These 5 % backing of dedicated voters was enough to change the ideology of a whole society including the programmes of all political parties in Germany – the reason being, in my opinion, that environmentalism was a general trend, global or at least European. This year’s election result has been 10 % only (!), but everywhere in Germany (and Europe) nobody is allowed to smoke in any public office, any workplace etc.]
e) It takes – of course – some time (to be counted in 5-year- to 10-year spans) until the ideas of any movement seep into the texture of society and permeate society (at the end of the day).
Haven’t the Khatami-elections and the Khatami-governments 1997 and 2001 been a sort of initial societal wave, preparing and perhaps somehow generating the huge societal wave arriving later, in 2009?
f) The year 2009 is for every Iranian unforgettable and will remain unforgettable until all witnesses, i.e. all Iranians now living, have died. The movement consists of various layers of society, amongst others of educated young people who shortly will take over responsibility in every respect (getting a job, founding families, forming personal connections on a job- or hobby-basis) – and wherever they are , wherever they work etc. they will judge the person opposite according to her/his attitude to that event in summer 2009 – for a very, very long time, will try to establish links on that line, will try to support people with a similar view on 2009
g) Possibly either new political groups or parties will be founded on the basis of the 2009-event, or/and existing political associations and parties will – slowly, but surely – try to attract this high potential of able persons and try to absorb them. This social and political absorption process will only be possible, if the political/social groups, institutions concerned somehow adjust their ideology, their programmatic ideas and aims to at least a limited extent.
h) The same is already happening and will continue to happen in – in Iran still influential and not to be overlooked – religious circles
I think one might call this process a “march through the [existing] institutions” of society with the result of a changing society.
This letter has been written on the proviso that I may be very wrong on account of not being Iranian and not being familiar with Iran in any way.
That is, (only) an Iranian will be an expert in this respect and will be able to judge, if the foregoing hypotheses/assumptions by me have anything to do with (Iranian) reality or are pure fantasy and madness !!!
Apologies for my loquaciousness (as “American man” once correctly wrote, having my verbal expressions in mind)
Pedestrian, I think you are missing something big in your analysis. If we were just talking about a situation of the masses against government, then there’s a chance, maybe, that the government could succeed in using limitless violence against the people to subdue the movement. But the situation is not that simple. There are many opponents of the regime, and they aren’t limited to the people protesting on the ground. The movement is reportedly aligned with some, if not the majority of grand ayatollahs, as well as leaders within the government. So that being the case, the regime is boxing itself into a corner by making excessive use of violence.
Also, a question for you: what was your alternative? I couldn’t quite figure it out from your description. For now, I think the best tool of the people are the protests during government holidays. It seems to be working, as the regime is clearly flustered by it and clueless as to what they should do.
DM, as I said somewhere else, I think the move positive thing to come out of this was the dielmma in the power hierarchy. It no longer looks as concrete, even if people were not to be on the streets anymore the establishment has a lot to deal with. So many of the inherent contradictions are out now, for the whole world to see. So yes, it’s not just the masses vs. the government. It’s the establishment vs. the establishment, religious leaders vs. establishment, etc.
But here, I was only referring to the “people” angle and not the rest.
(and mind you, I don’t agree with the word “masses” b/c it indicated that a majority of the population feel this way. I’m not so sure we know how many people support the opposition movement, and I’m not sure that that’s important. By the government’s estimates itself, we are at least 15 million people)
And I certainly hope the movement has brighter people than me. I don’t claim to have concrete strategies. I’m just saying that if the violence continues, maybe we should look at more local forms of resistance instead of more broad efforts like street protests.
German, I so agree. This thing is going to need TIME and my worry is that if things get too radical and violent, time won’t be our best ally.
referring to your last assumption / fear:
correct !
your picture with that bird in a cage motivated me to send you
[for you to use sometime]
the image with an empty cage published by Kurt Vonnegut estate:
in Iran ideas, ideals, thinking and thought – imprisoned by fanatic ideologies, by fanatic belief in a rightful repression, by fanatic gullibility, by a religious attitutude encouraging to fanaticism –
have freed themselves irriversably from these mental, ideological, intellectual chains,
have escaped these philosophical, political, religious, spiritual bars of their cage, corral, enclosure,
have just flown away for good !
German
the link: http://www.vonnegut.com/