Prominent Iranian Academics On Mousavi’s 17th Statement
Jan 21st, 2010 by pedestrian
After the release of Mousavi’s 17th statement, a group of Iranian scholars, professors and academics released their own statement in support of Mousavi’s plans.
This move was quite significant not because of practical reasons (none of these academics are currently in Iran) but because it is the first time in recent years that scholars of this caliber from all political, social and religious divides – from Ervand Abrahamian to Mohamad Tavakoli-Targhi to Dariush Ashoury – signed a letter together in support of a political roadmap/plan/individual inside Iran, and inside the – at least older frameworks – of the IRI.
The letter begins:
“Mir Hossein Mousavi’s 17th statement can be considered his most influential during the seven months since the green movement was born. After its release, prominent figures, groups and political factions reviewed and evaluated its contents from different angles and highlighted various aspects of the text.
The signatories of this statement – those who desire structural, democratic change; who support the rights of all citizens regardless of faith, ideals, ideologies, ethnicity, or gender; who also promote the separation of church and state – believe that [Mousavi’s 17th] declaration provides notable suggestions. A broad consensus regarding these recommendations can facilitate unity and coordination within the non-violent movement of the Iranian people and, like never before, isolate the authoritarian and aggressive regime. We believe that … ”
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Continued at Khordaad88.
Dear Pedestrian,
again I would like to bore you with some statistical data, pertinent to the general topic “the green movement”:
STATISTICS
The »green« movement for more democracy seems to be based mainly in cities under the young and educated parts of the population. Thus the tenor of media-reports. Therefore some statistical data are presented here:
The median age in Iran is 27 years (i.e. half of the population is younger than this figure); the median age in Germany is approx. 44 years.
Iran and Italy have an identical degree of urbanisation: 68% live in cities in each case.
Literacy in Iran with 77% approaches that of Turkey with approx. 87% .
The officially acknowledged election results of 33.75% for the candidate Mir-Hossein Mousavi and ca. 36% for the opposition [in reality a probably higher figure] altogether legitimizes the Iranian opposition to a greater extent than each of the two large German political parties has been able to acquire in the last national election in 2009 (under 35%; more exactly: Socialdemocrats/SPD with 23%; Christian-Democrats/CDU/CSU with 33.8%) .
All the best
Publicola
Pardon, I forgot to add the conclusion to be drawn from these figures:
In other words, the apparently violent suppression of the oppositional trend is condemned to certain (middle- and longterm) failure from the demographic and election-statistical point of view.
I feel as if all analyst see too much into Mousavis 17th statement. His demands if met with by the other side won’t really change anything about the system so long as there is a supreme leader and an Army that has operations in all sectors of the country.
More or less all he says (in my opinion of course) is the same thing he has been saying and that is that IRI should govern by the constitution, and if Khamenei agrees to the demand there really isn’t much that would prevent him or his successor from reverting back to the way things are now later on.
Artanian, I see where you’re coming from. But I also agree with Mousavi on “agreeing on a set of minimums”. I don’t see this thing (i.e., IRI) going anywhere good. I see a few decades of more tyranny … and then I don’t know what will come after. Maybe another mass revolt? A – formal – military dictatorship? Gradual calm?
Don’t know … But at this point, I don’t think it’s prudent or wise to root for an absolute overthrow of the system. IF and WHEN (and likely never) when the constitution itself was implemented … that would be a basis on moving forward and even gradually changing the constitution itself. If the assembly of experts actually did the job it was supposed to do – even in a constitution which makes room for velayat-e motlaghe – we’d be leagues better off than we are today.
Now, I don’t see that happening, the extremists are just too many and too powerful. But for someone in the place of Mousavi, I could see why he’s advocating this.
Publicola, what scares me is this “divide” everyone keeps talking about. It’s real and it’s everywhere and very tangible. That scares me more than the extremists themselves.
Ped I don’t think Mousavi or the opposition should necessary set their sight at complete overthrow of the regime in the short range as that would be bad for everybody, and I don’t think anyone wants a repeat of what followed immediately after the Islamic Revolution.
Having said that, however, that doesn’t mean that an effort should not be made to restrict the supreme leaders power and gain more control over the Revolutionary Guards. Without doing these two thing all the bodies meant to monitor the actions of the people in charge will remain useless.
As for where I think the regime is headed, I think as soon as Khamenei dies which I really don’t think will be that much longer (I’m willing to bet he will die in the next five years) I think we will become a formal military dictatorship. Perhaps it maybe naive of me to say this but I don’t think that the military taking over in the short term will necessarily be a bad thing in the long term. It will most likely lead to a lot more unjust death tho most likely.
I think I’m with you on the last part (after K.’s death). Unfortunately, that also seems to me where we’re headed
But I think Mousavi and the opposition at large do the right thing by not pointing straight at the leader. Not only will this bring them more torture and imprisonment, the divides are huge and very tangible. I think their greatest task right now isn’t necessarily even political – it’s social. It’s getting more people on their side, from the moderates within the other ranks and they can only do this if they don’t pinpoint the leader himself.
I think in the short term at least the economy is going to be the biggest danger to the regime survival, with all the news about government employees wages going unpaid and there being hint of strikes, it certainly doesn’t paint a pretty picture and the going will only get worse if the nuclear negotiation continues on the same path its on right now.
I still can’t see how people manage to get by. When my father was recently here he told me that a killo of meat is now around 10-12 dollars, that if true seem ridiculous when you factor in the average income families make.
on this, Abbas Abdi had a good analysis. I’ll try to dig it up and put up the link.
Dear Pedestrian,
your responses here are considerate and I agree with them/you.