Pedestrian

Posted in 22 Bahman, Islamic Nazis of Iran, Nincompoops | 4 Comments

4 Responses to “Celebrating Victory …”

1. on 11 Feb 2010 at 2:37 pm1S

   Have you read this account of todays events? I think its pretty much spot on:

   http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,5239736,00.html?maca=per-rss-per-all-1491-rdf

2. on 11 Feb 2010 at 3:22 pm2Publicola

   Social and political change – one structural main obstacle: the Basijis

   A guess from abroad on the basis of some figures:

   Armed executive organs – some figures

   • Iranian total population: around 74.000.000 inhabitants
   http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran
   • The regular armed forces have an estimated 820,000 personnel (1,1 % of total population)
   • Law enforcement in Iran has 60,000 police personnel served under the Ministry of Interior and Justice, including border patrol personnel (0,08 % of total population)
   http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_enforcement_in_Iran#Secret_police_organizations
   • The Army of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution, or Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), has an estimated 125,000 personnel (0,17 % of total population)
   • The Basij is a paramilitary volunteer force controlled by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards. Its membership is a matter of controversy. Iranian sources claim a membership of 12.6 million, including women, of which perhaps 3 million are combat capable
   (17 % OF TOTAL POPULATION)
   http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Republic_of_Iran%27s_military
   • total figure of regular police forces plus regular army personnel: 880.000 (in proportion to the population total: 1,2%)
   • total figure of forces potentially involved in law enforcement (police plus Baisji plus IRGC): 12.785.000 (in proportion to the population total: 17,3 %)

   Is it wrong/absurd to count
   The total figure of ca. 17,2 % (IRGC-forces plus the basiji-auxiliaries)
   as
   dedicated LOYAL, STALWART AND STAUNCH ARMED SUPPORTERS of the current and any hardline ruling government?

   What does the term “long-term” mean within this context?
   A guess as to the concept and possibility of potential longterm social and political change:

   The Iran-Iraq War took place 1980 – 1988, the reason and start of the emergence and existence of the IRGC and Basiji. Let us assume that the main contingent of men fighting at that time might have been 18 to 25 years on average. Now, twenty to thirty years later these men are about 40 to 55 years old. This generation and age cohort (age group), having fought for Iran, are not willing now in the prime and at the peak of their active (working) life to let go of their potential influence and power within society they have acquired with Ahmadinejad coming to power at the latest.
   It will last about at least 5 to – at the most – 20 years until these men who have direct fighting (and killing) experience at their disposal will leave active working life, will leave the ranks of the Basiji.

   – unless Iranian society, Iranian legislative power (parliamentarians) or Iranian executive power (government) manages to dissolve the Basiji-troop – and integrate it within the ordinary, functional police forces and army forces

3. on 11 Feb 2010 at 3:50 pm3pedestrian

   Hey S, thank you!

   Publicola, from afar, it seems to me that actually, a good number of former basijis, are what are now called “moderate principalists” who supported Mousavi and Rezaie in the election. The problem is that a lot of men Ahmadinejad has arround him are younger, who have nothing to do with the war or fighting for country … they are more like corrupt businessmen than anything else. But they have used the umbrella of the revolution well, and the leader has embraced them, and thus, this will go on for quite some time …

4. on 11 Feb 2010 at 4:03 pm4Publicola

   Dear Pedestrian,

   thank you for your corrective information,
   though I still wonder:
   what about the age and what about the past of the (higher and middle) commanding levels of the IRGC and of the Basijis?

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