More Accounts of REALITY … No Victory … No Defeat
Feb 11th, 2010 by pedestrian
Khordaad88 has translated numerous eyewitness accounts of today’s demonstrations. We will continue to bring you more in the next few days.
Here is one account:
Before the demonstration, we screamed, we shouted: this is such a stupid idea [gathering at Azadi]. We kept arguing that we could not “capture” Azadi Square, and this will only help the enemy. No one listened.
I let a pedestrian get in my car. She was crying. She said they were all on our side, but we did not dare move. They [government supporters] had come from 6 a.m. There was a boy who had a very religious look to him, with a beard and a keffiyeh. He wiped the sweat on his forehead with his keffiyeh, and asked her: “how do you know they were all on our side?” the girl responded between tears: “because they were not repeating the chants heard over the loudspeakers.” And the boy was calling the system every unprintable name under the sun.
I asked: so why didn’t you shout something else?
She said: because there were scores of security forces scattered between us. And besides, you couldn’t tell if the person standing beside you was a government supporter or not.
I asked the boy: so why have you made yourself look like this?
He said: “they told us to. I read so in balatarin.” [the plan was to "look" like government supporters, get in front, and "capture" Azadi Square]
When my wife heard the word “balatarin” she shook her head and I wish I had a keffiyeh too to wipe off my sweat.
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Many are talking of whether today was a “defeat” or a “victory” for the greens. Certainly we have to wait some more and observe more, but given what we know … I do not look at events in such terms. What was there that was supposed to be “won” that is now, “lost”? Yes, given the lack of a huge turnout, there will most likely be even more pressure on opposition groups and human rights activists in the following weeks/months … But given where we stand right now, this moment, what was really lost? The Iranians inside Iran either chose to stay away from the protests, or could not gather in big numbers, or … But this is the end result. So, if you were an average Iranian who supported the opposition, what would be lost for you?
If you are a student, activist, etc, in Iran today, you have yet to know. And that’s it exactly: we don’t know yet, to be speaking so loudly of defeat and loss.
I am personally not disapointed, because after seeing the incredible turnout for Ashura, I was certain the state was busy preparing for 22 Bahman from the day after Ashura … They were incredibly surprised that day and they were not going to let it repeat itself, given that it was such an important day for them. It was important to make the opposition look like small groups of eghteshahgar [attention seekers creating disturbance] and to secure the city full force.
Expecting anything else was pure blissful optimism.
Add to that the grave miscalculation by the greens themselves.
I think here is where the diaspora is actually influencing the state in Iran for the worse.
I was at an Iranian salon a few weeks ago. The 57 year old lady who I’ve known for more than a decade now told me: “I have been wanting to go to Iran for two decades now. I am waiting for after 22 Bahman, since the regime will be toppled that day, and then I’m going.”
Really?
I spoke to a traveler agent, a friend of the family, who said that at least a dozen people had called her and told her to make them reservations for Iran – but not to confirm their ticket until 22 Bahman, when they would know that “the regime would be toppled for sure.”
There was a vote on balatarin yesterday where 85% of people (almost 11, 0000 individuals from inside and outside Iran) voted that the greens would “take over” Azadi Square. These thoughts were further amplified by questionable individuals like Mohsen Sazegara who was giving tips on VOA on “what the protesters should do after taking over Azadi”. There were talks about “over 3 million opposition forces” attending the rally. I think this is a perfect example of where the virtual world and the expat community circulates their visions of sugar plum fairies on TV stations … and they have become liability for the movement. When you raise expectation above the real capacity of a movement , that only results in disappointment and despair.
The reality was that after Ashura, today was not going to be an easy day, and, that the greens should have at least made a better plan. Given tight security and the lack of a good plan … this was inevitable.
I think today was more a “reality check” than a “defeat”:
- the state has far more security resources at its disposal than what we’d like to believe
- the state has far more resouces in terms of getting out supporters/call girls/fans/oblivious forced presence/etc than we’d like to think
- we have to think beyond street protests
Thanks. That is exactly what I think too. Considering the high risk of violence, the number of 3 Mio protesters is far away from any real possibility.
So the consequences:
- groups must get together: search a regular place out of reach of the violent basij militia, maybe somewhere in the green.
- don`t search confrontation
- create more own symbols
- increase your own media. (On youtube or not-controllable internet-sites)
- play music and be creative
*”free hugs movement”
*going in large chains hand in hand through the streets…
(do a second “woodstock”?)
Well, I hope I don`t sound completly out of the track now. It should not mean to stop showing presence as protesters, but not doing it in direct confrontation.
I am convinced one of the central points of the “green movement” was and still is to show, that the peoples mind is changing.
Revolution today is much more about culture than about defeating “an opposing movement” by physical force, even so the appearence of green people is elementary that people in Iran don`t lose their hope. So why not just creating a day of “green color”?
People all over iran dress green while doing their daily life things.
If it is considered to be the color of the islam.
that would be part of indirect protest.
Sure it can not defeat the regime at once, but it is a ongoing symbol of changing minds and will create a complete new situation for the regime in teheran.
It might change more than a overthrowing with state forces and violence.
- Change always starts in hearts and heads –
And green is the color of hope, nature and believe .
In some ways it could possibly be a win for the movement. Here in this interview (http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,5239736,00.html?maca=per-rss-per-all-1491-rdf ) the observer recalls how the ordinary pro-ahmadinejad supporters were turned off by all the the brutality that they saw.
so today could have actually helped the greens gain some support.
“I think this is a perfect example of where the virtual world and the expat community circulates their visions of sugar plum fairies on TV stations … and they have become liability for the movement. When you raise expectation above the real capacity of a movement , that only results in disappointment and despair.”
“We have to think beyond street protests”
my amateurish, dilettante guess:
your analysis seems to be a highly plausible interpretation or conclusion drawn
We have made an appearance today and have made our presence felt. But we did not deliver a blow to the regime and lets be honest they got what they wanted TODAY for propaganda purposes.
The regime fully anticipated what the movement was gonna do and planned carefully to prevent us from achieving our goal.
As the cliché goes we lost the battle but not the war and we need to recognize their tactics and create solutions which counter their measures to suppress the movement.
We can sit here all day and argue if we made our presence felt or not but instead we can use our creativity to find solutions for how to succeed in the long run.
Example of problems we can overcome
1. Inability for the crowds to unit in one common place through block of traffic and roads.
2. Understanding why the basij or militia are so loyal to this criminal regime and countering this loyalty with logic of the masses/ incentives to join the good guys ( remember this regime is nothing without their attack dogs)
3. Protesters being identified and singled out for arrest on the day or later on
4. Obtaining strong support from other demographics who are disenchanted with the regime but are afraid or unsure of joining the greens
5. Countering regime propaganda that they are the majority by asking for a referendum
6. countering regime propaganda that we are the agents of the west
7. And many many more which I’m sure we can think of
I think this movement need to re-strategize and come back stronger than ever, let the regime think they won for now and once we re emerge they will not know what hit them.
Neighbors in Iran are still much more “neighborly” than many other parts of the world. I think we need to start looking at local communities and plan small, and if ever, like Ashura, an opportunity presents itself, we can hit the streets.
For instance, 13 bedar, the ending day of the Iranian new year celebrations, is a day to celebrate “green”. It’s a rule that you don’t stay indoors, families all meet in big parks, and recreation centers … and tie grass. It’s a celebration of spring, earth and “green” … what a perfect symbol, what a great day to get together, even if it is without chants or great goals.
Of course, a movement can not be sustained by a new year celebration, there needs to be longer term planning, and smaller sustainable groups.
That’s what I’ve been thinking, watching from afar. Street protests can only be effective so long. When a tactic gets old, try something new, if only to shake up the government. Somebody needs to think outside the box. But who’s doing that?
You made a very good analysis. Green has to change the appearance if they want to achieve their goals.
The movement which I see, and which I hope for, is something long term. That’s why I’m really hopeful in the students, especially pre-secondary students. Look at the artwork they came up with 22 Bahman. They are in saf-er- communities, so they can arrange for their own activities.
But I really can’t figure out what the grown-ups can do … book clubs? neighborhood gatherings? pirate radio? printing pamphlets? distributing CDs?
There was too much emphasis placed on today, some even calling it a mini-referendum. But I think the high expectations was unavoidable and is really nobodies fault. Not sure whats going to happen from here on in. It was just disheartening to see so many regime supporters coming out chanting and waving flags in orchestration without a care, while their fellow Iranians have been arrested, raped, tortured and murdered.
Rohan, some of it was indeed inevitable, given the significance of this day. But I don’t applaud fellas who appear on VOA night after night cheering big illusions and empty claims … yes, I agree, it is very sad, especially having met some of these good folks, some don’t even BELIEVE the fact that their fellow countrymen have been arrested, raped, tortured and murdered.
Maybe they can see, if there are more contacts (in the working world) that are useful for the green movement.
And I would never underestimate (book)clubs as a possibility to think about next steps.
Tim, I know many revolutionaries – men and women who were my age during the revolution and were also highly supportive of it. And what always strikes me is that they were much more well-read than we are right now. I’m not indicating that the level of book reading determines the success of any movement (of course, look at how the revolution turned out!) but I actually have many, MANY friends who have only read at most one or two books (corny love stories too) in their whole life! … I know it may sound insignificant, but I think book clubs are actually a good idea and easy to create.
Reading books is getting educated. This means every kind of book.
(Don’t know if my first comment was posted, but here is the continuance.)
I think the Green movement needs to salvage itself back into the conventional fold of reform. That’s not going to be easy. There is a considerable rift now, with a vocal minority element that’s become quite radicalized. And the exiles have not helped the matter, trying to fuel a dangerous subversion from the relative coziness of the West.
As it stands now, an undercurrent of dissent will persist for a long period of time. I’m guessing years. But the lesson of today was that the limits of hijacking spaced apart national events is not going to afford a true viability and relevance to Iran’s political dynamic. And the establishent now has an effective answer to it, as well.
Unfortunately, and I hate to say this, it’s back to the drawing board for those elements of the political spectrum that are not represented in today’s political make up of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Pirouz, I did not have a comment here from you, except this one!
I too agree that that’s not going to be easy but not because of an element that’s become radicalized. I don’t think that minority poses a threat or a challenge. I think we are arguing from two different places: you argue that the movement needs to “walk” back, I argue that it was “pushed” back, it never intended to walk away, and still hasn’t for the most part. The most brutal aspects of the IRI have taken reign full force, and so the dilemma increases exponentially. But I agree, appearing at national events is not a lasting solution.
Have you seen the google satellite photo of the protests today?
http://google-latlong.blogspot.com/2010/02/view-into-tehran.html
contrary to what the state TV showed, the Azaadi square at 10:45 am looks very empty! It is possible the regime set a limit to the number of people that could get in the square and then sealed it off.
Also interesting is the clouds from the tear gas (?) north of the square.
All in all, the crowds seemed big in the surrounding routes.
Thank you for this. Those of us on the outside, Iranian and otherwise, cannot understand what these brave women and men are going through on a daily basis. It is easy for us to get frustrated with the apparent lack of progress or stagnation of the movement and it could be tempting for some to encourage protesters. This was a reality check. We have to be here for support, but never to tell people when to go into harm’s way.
S, thank you! This is wonderful. Yes as you said, they’ve got the adjacent streets COVERED. And makes sense, if they have control of the streets, and some security in the square, they have it all.
Joanne, I know what you mean! It’s easy to get frustrated and forget that we are standing outside in safety. We all need a reality check every now and then!
ped – what you need is RECRUITMENT and STRIKES. i realize that both are slightly [maybe highly] unrealistic but they have to be come a reality or absolutely nothing will happen. change has begun with simple ink and paper in the past; with simple door-to-door; and my former point is, i believe, the one of greatest importance – those who support the government at the moment must be turned away. you need much more (vocal & physical) support than you have.
the biggest problem is this requires a terrible, terrible sacrifice from many; and i’m not quite willing to encourage my loved ones for fear of what may happen to them. i’m sure that most feel the same way.
Hello Pedestrian, in term of “where to go from here” do you have any thoughts about this interview?
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbureau/2010/01/irans-new-labor.html
I have an idea. I am not from Iran, and I know little about the country. I have no link to the fight of the Green Movement, except to have been greatly inspired by what I have been able to see of the courage and bravery of the Iranian people over the last few days. But I have an idea.
You have said that you need to create some of your own symbols; you have also said that participation in the movement needs to happen more regularly, but that many are scared to take to the streets even on occasions like 22 Bahman. My idea, which I hope will tackle all of these problems, is the following:
There are some symbols that can be found in ancient Iranian mythology which, if taken up by the Green Movement, would be powerful icons identifiable to them; they would also defy that the current regime represents the true culture of the people of Iran. One such symbol is the homa/huma bird. Would it be possible for people to make lots and lots (and lots more) small birds out of green paper or card? Would a paper bird, made in this way and green and small, still be recognisable as a homa bird? (I don’t know what it is meant to look like according to legend.) If so, then people could make such things in their own homes – lots and lots of them – and then throw them out of their window at set times, filling the streets with small green symbols. You could organise a time to throw them, so that they all fly out in unison; or you could just have people throw them as and when they wish.
This would be an icon that could capture people’s imagination. Because there would be so many of them, it would be hard to keep clearing them up – so lots of people would see them as they went about their lives, even if they didn’t participate in making them. And because they would (hopefully) be easy to make, and easy to discretely throw out of the window, how could state police stop them being made and thrown? People who understandably fear going on a march could take part in this activity with little fear of arrest.
The homa bird never stops flying; the Green Movement never stops fighting until the people of Iran are free. Apart from the obvious problem that they would be seen on the ground for the most part, not in the air (so not quite what the homa bird is said to do), it could be quite catchy. I also thought you could somehow make use of the legend of Kaveh the Blacksmith, but haven’t worked out how you could make use it yet.
Let me know what you think. And please accept my humble praise for the courage and vigour of your people, who fight in spite of dangers that people from my part of the world could hardly imagine.
Since yesterday, I’m thinking of that saying you have in persian “take the stairs step by step” (pelleh pelleh raft bayad sooye bam – right ?), so this 22 Bahman was yet another step, wasn’t it ? I mean at least the media were falling a little less into the nukes and propaganda traps of the regime and even having nearly no journalists there, they were reporting of the protests. Did you see Gary Sick on CNN who also mentioned a short term victory for the regime, but considered that it will not have the long term victory ?!
On the other hand I also thought, that changing strategies is necessary. So far, the Greens were always taking the official dates (considered as safer, of course), but shouldn’t they create their own historic dates ? I think No Ruz is probably the next step. And No Ruz has THE big advantage: it’s not an islamic festivity !
And No Ruz starts with Tchahr Shanbeh Soori – also taking place outside, where you should light big fires. Do you think that will be allowed ?
But then of course I agree, we are here behind our computers, we should not give any advice to those facing this brutal reality in Iran, but I really would like to let them know my/our support.
Thank you for these interesting posts !
Inna, I am afraid I disagree. We do need recriument, but why and how would we need/achieve strikes? Towards what end? To do what?
But I agree! “change has begun with simple ink and paper in the past; with simple door-to-door”
I was having a really interesting discussion with some friends last night about how the greens could either woo the “middle people” in Iran (government supporters who are uncomfortable with what they see from Ahmadinejad but are too loyal to the Islamic Republic all together, and believe that the greens are being funded/wooed by anti-IRI forces) … or the secular expat community outside Iran. I think the greens have been more successful at the latter thus far, and they need to change gears. These anti-khamenei, ‘jomhooriyeh irani’ slogans are beautiful and powerful and haunting, but they are only helping this disconnect between the groups the greens really need to attract inside Iran.
evildoer, I am really curios about that post. Labor organizers in Iran are very poor workers, how did this guy end up in the States?
B, your idea sounds a bit like the green balloons? Remember those? I agree, we can start playing with symbols. Too bad my blog has little readership, I have to get your ideas out through some emails
djirdjirak, I agree, we need a change in strategy, but I don’t like this “victory/defeat” dichotomy, and I think it is mostly a discourse heard in the media. I love the idea of Norouz, especially 13bedar I mentioned above … I will have a post about that soon!
Great piece. I think the whole idea of victory/defeat is not relevant. It was silly to believe that a civil rights movement could proceed on the same schedule as the revolution had. And what if it had? That would have been a gift to the militarized Revolutionary Guards who could easliy control a hasty government defeat.
When I heard AN’s speech I wondered if the crowd was actually so quiet or if the sound had been filtered, as you stated.
I also looked at a post I wrote about 22 Bahman in 2007 and was surprised to find how I described it: http://bit.ly/9FXz1B. It offers a bit of perspective.
Pedestrian – He probably got in with some assistance from someone high up in the labor unions here in the US (very powerful here, a little too much so in some cases). Anyone that high up probably has some strings to pull that us ordinary folks can’t (like that poor married mom who will possibly have her US citizenship taken away because her father, born in America, moved to Bulgaria for some time with his Bulgarian mother and apparently has ticked off some Dept. of State bureaucrat).
Hey Tori, thanks! I think it was filtered, 100%. I wasn’t convinced first, but I was watching it live and it was amazing how the voice of the people turned “on” and “off”. Whenever they were heard during a timed clap or salavat, they would suddenly “stop” as if a switch had been turned off. That’s only possible through filters.
Lola, that’s what I mean: if he did get here on personal connections, what would that mean for his connections with labor unions inside Iran? How connected is he really to them, and how much of his words are really relevant?
I’m certainly your least informed visitor, but winning new hearts,and minds (esp. among the armed forces) requires keepng public attention on the failure of the IRI to BE an ” Islamic Republic “.
Moral failure is the IRI’s weakest point, and only the clerics have the sharp spear to pierce their phoney cloak , and expose them. The IRI is shameless, but reaching out for support from from foreign clerics could also help to discredit this dictatorship with the “undecideds”.
i think strikes are very effective in terms of making governments listen. but, i seem to have forgotten the lesson i learned not too long ago – (in the west, at least), they are most effective in times of affluence.
Pedsetrain, I met labor organizers from Iraq in the U.S. a few years ago, people who were not just poor but being hunted down for assassination. I assure you that real people do get to travel occasionally, although not enough. There is a global network of activism that support these kinds of communications and really want to hear from Iran’s labor. The way you set it up, the very fact that someone makes an appearance is evidence against them. That’s a way of thinking that is self-defeating.
Now, I was hoping that you can tell me about what you hear in this guy’s words and about this guy. I don’t know anything about him. So maybe your suspicions are right, but the fact that he was interviewed doesn’t prove them.
evildoer, my bad! I did not mean to accuse him of anything. I simply don’t know him, and I am only familiar with some unions in Khuzestan, and those folks have never traveled outside the province, never mind the country, so I just really didn’t know how he had ended up in the States. I wish they had provided more info on him. Who is he? how did he get involved with the unions? Does that mean he’s a worker himself? With the language he’s using, he’s not going to be able to go back to Iran. So how does that fit into who he is and what he’s doing?
I will have to admit complete ignorance, HOWEVER, from mere ignorant observation, this labor uprising seems to have been present for years, and is only now gaining attention in the west, maybe b/c of the reform movement. Worker unions have been systematically crushed for the past 30 years, despite claims otherwise. For instance, at haft-tapeh, there have been a number of strikes in the past decade, so why didn’t we ever hear about them? I am certain a big number of workers voted for Ahmadinejad, and support him, again, I really don’t know numbers or percentage points.
He says: “once labor strikes get under way in the next few months” … what does that mean? We’ll have to wait and see how wrong I am, but I see no mass labor movements in the upcoming months in the current Iranian climate.